US jobs report

US jobs repor

2026-10-02 10:29:26

September payrolls seen at 90,000 as markets focus on whether August gets a sharp revision

The U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, is expected to show 90,000 jobs added, down from August’s 162,000. Yet the bigger market question may be whether August is revised sharply lower after unusual seasonal adjustments appeared to inflate the headline figure. That issue matters because it could change how investors read the September number itself. Rate expectations have already shifted quickly. Markets were pricing roughly a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve hike in October earlier this week, but that fell to about 25% by Thursday after New York Fed President John Williams said there was no rush to raise rates and August core PCE came in soft. Goldman Sachs has pushed its next hike call to December. Strategists also point to positioning risk in long-dated Treasuries. Goldman Sachs said CTA trend-following funds hold about $390 billion in global bond shorts, with U.S. 10-year Treasury short positioning at 99% of the historical maximum and 30-year positioning at 100%. If payrolls disappoint or the unemployment rate rounds up to 4.2%, the report could trigger a broader short-covering move in bonds. Across Wall Street, forecasts for payroll growth range from 50,000 to 130,000, while unemployment estimates span 4.0% to 4.2%, setting up a report where revisions and internals may matter as much as the headline print.

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US Nonfarm Pa

2026-09-30 08:48:59

U.S. September payrolls forecast splits sharply as banks and prediction markets diverge

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its September jobs report at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time on Friday, with nonfarm payrolls at the center of market attention. Forecasts are unusually wide. FinancialJuice said estimates compiled on Sept. 28 ranged from 35,000 to 180,000 jobs, while Bloomberg’s economist survey pointed to 90,000 and Dow Jones’ survey came in at 84,000. Barclays was among the most cautious, projecting only 50,000 new jobs, while Bank of America estimated 60,000. Wells Fargo and Credit Agricole both expected 90,000. Prediction markets are leaning higher than many Wall Street economists. CNBC reported on Sept. 29 that Kalshi priced the odds of payroll growth above 90,000 at nearly 60%, with the chance of a print above 100,000 around 50%. Polymarket showed roughly the same probability for a result above 100,000. The split matters because August payrolls surprised sharply to the upside: Dow Jones had expected 53,000, but the official figure came in at 162,000, about three times the estimate. The September report is also being watched for its implications for the Federal Reserve’s next move, with CME FedWatch probabilities for an October rate hike rising to 64% to 70%, according to Mitrade.

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US jobs repor

2026-08-24 12:26:18

Week 36 Macro Calendar Puts Global Growth Resilience to the Test as Jobs, PMI and Inflation Data Converge

Global markets are heading into a data-heavy Week 36, running from Aug. 31 to Sept. 6, with investors shifting from late-summer policy interpretation to a direct test of economic activity across major regions. China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs arrive first on Aug. 31, followed by U.S. ISM manufacturing data and eurozone inflation on Sept. 1, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and Australia’s second-quarter national accounts on Sept. 2, U.S. ISM services and Canadian trade on Sept. 3, and the closely watched U.S. August jobs report plus Canada’s labor force survey on Sept. 4. The central question is whether signals from manufacturing, inflation and labor markets will align around a resilient global growth story or point to a more fragile backdrop. Markets are expected to focus less on any single headline and more on confirmation across orders, employment, prices and regional demand. For crypto, lower real yields and a softer dollar could support BTC and ETH, but only if liquidity improves without a broader washout in risk positioning. Spot demand, trading volume and market breadth are likely to matter as much as rate expectations in determining whether any rally has staying power.

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Bitcoin

2026-08-07 16:07:12

Bitcoin Stays in Death Cross as July Jobs Miss Cuts September Hike Odds

Bitcoin traded at $64,938 after a softer U.S. jobs report pushed Treasury yields lower, knocked the dollar down 0.5%, and trimmed September rate-hike odds to 40% from 55% a day earlier, according to CME FedWatch. But the chart still shows a death cross, with the 50-day EMA below the 200-day EMA and price boxed in below both. The setup leaves $65,000 as the near-term line in the sand, while $60,000 and $58,000 remain key downside levels. On Myriad, traders are still pricing nearly 65% odds that BTC drops to $55,000 before it reaches $84,000.

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Bitfinex

2026-08-01 09:42:03

Bitfinex says late-June Bitcoin sell-off largely flushed out derivatives traders

Bitfinex analysts said in a new report that derivatives traders were largely washed out during Bitcoin’s late-June sell-off, leaving limited room for another wave of forced selling. After Bitcoin fell below $58,000 on July 1, average daily liquidations stayed well below this year’s typical $400 million to $500 million range, which the analysts said points to relatively low liquidation pressure even as macro shocks continued to hit the market. They argued that Bitcoin held up better than leveraged equity themes because the "fuel" for forced selling had already been exhausted. Looking ahead, the analysts expect investors to stay defensive ahead of next week’s U.S. jobs report, which they described as the next major macro catalyst after the Federal Reserve meeting. In their view, the bigger question is not whether another liquidation event is coming, but whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows can return once the market has a clearer read on the Fed’s path. They added that traders still have not seen a signal showing institutional buyers are actively stepping in or are insensitive to price.

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US Jobs Repor

2026-07-22 12:55:13

US Nonfarm Payrolls Plunge by 92,000, Crypto Markets Bet on Resurgent Fed Rate Cut Hopes

U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Crypto markets surged as traders repriced the odds of a Fed rate cut in 2026.

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